Solar Photovoltaic Adoption in East Java Non-Profit Organizations

Abstract

Non-profit organizations in East Java need dependable electricity for service continuity, daily operations, and cost control, yet face capital, regulatory, behavioral, and tropical-climate barriers to rooftop solar photovoltaic adoption. This study combines a focused literature review, bibliometric mapping of 25 verified domain studies selected from 79 unique Scopus records, a random-effects synthesis of five Global Solar Atlas locations, and a 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo model for a common 12 kWp system. The 25 studies met predefined adoption, finance/policy, governance/behavior, and tropical-performance criteria and passed metadata verification. Modeled annual output ranges from 17.231 to 18.227 MWh; pooled yield is 4.03 kWh/kWp/day (95% CI: 3.92–4.14). Median NPV is IDR 40.7–54.9 million, with a conditional positive-NPV probability of 86.4–92.5%. Sensitivity analysis identifies the discount rate, tariff escalation, capital cost, avoided electricity value, and self-consumption as the dominant drivers of NPV. The five-city results are screening evidence, not a representation of all tropical climates or roofs. A 30% grant or blended-finance contribution raises positive-NPV probability above 99.8% and reduces median payback to 5.8–6.2 years.